The UL Sex Scandal: On the Verge of a Break

A few days ago, Katina Powell and her daughters made the media rounds, and provided loads of documentation and evidence backing up their version of events. This information was also independently verified by Outside the Lines through an independent investigation.

That day, and the days that followed, were a PR nightmare for UL. Nearly every talking head in the industry called for Pitino's resignation. The remainder, acknowledged the severity of the scandal and predicted he wouldn't survive professionally.

Then came news Pitino was not going to the ACC media days, instead students would be sent like lambs to the slaughter. More PR nightmares ensued. That is, until yesterday.

Starting yesterday, it all changed. Local sports personalities suddenly changed their tune, all at the same time. This is no coincidence. But what does it tell us?

It tells me that UL thinks they have a plausible theory they're about to release; and I expect Forde to be the one who breaks it. Remember my predictions when the story first broke? I predicted McGee would fall on the sword, and UL let Forde break the initial story because that would make him more credible later on in case UL needed to float a questionable story. 

McGee resigned his position last week, which means he is no longer under the control of UMKC. This was step 1 to having him fall on the sword. I THINK the local sports writers are just batting lead off; and they're about to let Forde come in for the clean up with some theory about inappropriate relationships with Powell and McGee; and hope it gets traction. Or that McGee paid for prostiutes for the guardians without the recruits present. Those are the only angle that makes sense, given the new direction taken by the local personalities. Especially so since at least one story attacked the "in other places" portion of Powell's story.

So in the coming days, keep an eye on Forde; because he'll be the one who breaks it.

The UL Sex Scandal. What to know. What to expect.

I rarely write about sports. The rare exception is when my experience as an attorney and crisis manager may give useful insight to the casual observer. This is one of those times.

In case you missed it, news broke late Friday evening that a book was about to be released by a Louisville Madam who claims she was paid for her and her friends to perform sexual acts for current and prospective UL basketball players. Allegations included the pay for sex with prospective players was to entice them to sign with UL.

Explosive is an understatement. But lets break down exactly what we know, what it means, and what to expect.

1) Pat Forde broke the story late Friday evening. Anyone in PR/crisis management knows Friday evening is the time to dump bad PR news. That way there's an entire weekend news cycle before Monday hits. Typically, weekend news ratings are very low. Plus there's always the good chance another big news story will break over the weekend, which gives people something else to talk about on Monday. For example, this weekend will be Hurricane Joaquin.

The other important part, is letting Forde break the story. Forde is a long time friend of the UL program and Pitino. Forde even co-authored at least 2 books together. So he's hardly an unbiased reporter. By letting Forde break the story, he becomes the "authority" to the casual observer. This means he can be used to later filter in the UL side of things later, without the casual observer knowing any better. Its already happening, with Forde saying Pitino had no knowledge. Maybe Pitino did. Maybe he didn't. But don't believe it just because Forde says so.

2) The press conference was a disaster. Jurich and UL knew about the allegations since August. They almost surely fed Forde the information, and coordinated with him about its release (remember it was Friday evening). So its not as if this was totally unexpected. Yet it went terribly, which speaks volumes. This likely means they think the allegations are true, or mostly true.

There was also an important interchange between Pitino and a reporter. During the exchange, a reporter tried suggesting that Pitino was saying the allegations weren't true. Pitino quickly and sternly corrected him, and explained that he was not saying they weren't true. This likely means Pitino was mindful of avoiding any language which may result in a defamation suit. This leads us to the next point.

3) There was likely negotiations to keep this information private. Blackmail/extortion is illegal. However, its legal to offer the sole and exclusive right to publish the book to anyone who's willing to pay the asking price; including Pitino, Jurich, or any of the players. Of course that means the book would never be published, but that's the point. Why do I think this?

Players were contacted months ago about this book. Pitino and Jurich knew about it since August, and there's even been an investigation. Yet there's been no leak and the Friday press conference looked a little surprised, given all things. Why wouldn't the story break before now? The publisher certainly would not choose to release this book Friday night. There's really no other explanation except negotiations had been ongoing, but suddenly fell apart; so Jurich and company went preemptive.

4) Jurich and UL are incredible at protecting information. Players knew for months. Jurich and Pitino knew since August. Compliance knew. Private investigators knew. Thats alot of people to know about such explosive allegations. Pretty incredible noone leaked it.

5) McGee almost certainly did not act alone. Im not saying Pitino knew about it. But someone almost certainly funded this operation. We may never know, unless this case ends up in the legal system; which is a definite possibility. But there's almost certainly a bank trail, since the book mentions McGee getting money from ATM's.

6) What to expect. There are several factors to consider. Pitino is a legend, with his legacy at risk. McGee is on the move up, but is a true company man. The 2013 national title is in jeopardy. Jurich will be untouchable, short of the money being traced back to him. As of now, UL thinks the allegations are true.

I would have McGee take the fall, claim Pitino had no knowledge, admit to major infractions; but only following the 2013 season. McGee is on the way up, but is still expendable in this scenario. This somewhat saves Pitino's legacy, which will be tarnished regardless. It would save the 2013 banner. Jurich is safe regardless. Based on what we know right now, its what Id do. I think its what they'll do too.