Thursday, February 12, 2015

What Happens with Lloyd Tubman?


There's been much discussion regarding the recent Lloyd Tubman news. There are two related, yet mostly separate issues in regards to Tubman and UK:

1) Legal - Tubman was presented to the grand jury (Id be interested in seeing a transcript, as Im guessing it was a softball presentation) and the grand jury reported No True Bill. This means the grand jury didn't believe probable cause exists to believe the crime was committed. Further, the prosecution stated they would not present this case again. It is not a declaration of innocence; but its the closest thing.

The victim appears to be sticking to her story, which is smart IF she testified at the grand jury; otherwise face perjury if she later changes her story. She can not appeal. However, there is no statute of limitations for felonies; so Tubman could be presented again at any time should a prosecutor so choose. Very unlikely, unless new information surfaces.

Ive tried multiple serious, serious rape cases. The law presumes innocence. However make no mistake - for these types of cases, Defendants are usually viewed as guilty until proven innocent. These are very emotionally and politically charged cases, which make them potential nightmares for any elected prosecutor. Ive seen prosecutors hammered in the press and/or election ads for dismissing rape cases that should have been dismissed.

2) UK's PR issues - Tubman wasn't fully cleared, but seems he wont be prosecuted. However there are potential PR landmines with this case. In the court of public opinion, anyone accused of rape is considered guilty; period. Don't believe me? Look at Bill Cosby (an example for the media treatment of these cases, not a comparison of facts in the case).

Media comes down so fast and hard on these cases, UK had no choice but to suspend Tubman immediately. No "we'll wait on the investigation", etc. Just an immediate, indefinite suspension. For comparison look at the Barker, Baker, Dubose situation. That's the difference in a rape allegation and an assault allegation.

Where does UK go from here? I think Tubman can come back, if his academics, etc are in order. I think there will be a minor, short term social media outcry. Maybe. But nothing major. I think the real question is: does Tubman want to come back? If so, is there anything else preventing him from re-joining the team (ie academics, out of shape, no longer wants to pursue football, etc)?

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